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Impact of Share Buyback on Annaly Capital

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of its outstanding common shares over a 12 month period.  Annaly currently has 975 million shares outstanding with a market cap of $15.59 billion.  The buyback is 9.62% of the current market cap.

Based on FY 2013 earnings projections, the buyback will have an EPS accretion of 10.64%.  By adding the accretion with the current dividend yield of 12.5% the total return will be 23% without changing the PE ratio.  It will be hard to find a better high yield investment with this type of potential.

Zacks Investment has Annaly rated as neutral or hold with a 12-month price target of 18.30.  The target price is 15.6% higher than the current market price.

The current low interest rate environment has reduced potential investment returns, only partially offset by low short-term funding costs.  Prepayment rates on residential mortgages have also recently increased as agencies complete programs to repurchase delinquent mortgages and stabilize housing markets.  As a result, we expect net interest margins to narrow moderately over the next 12 months. Longer term, we think Annaly’s conservative financial posture places it in a strong position to expand its portfolio of agency mortgage backed securities once investment markets become more attractive. We think Annaly can augment investment income with higher fees from an expanding portfolio of assets under management for third parties.

Q3 earnings are expected to be announced after market hours on October 29, 2012.  Investors should hold up new purchases until the Q3 results.

Here is a link to the best mortgage REITs for the next quarter.

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