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Posts Tagged ‘TWO’

Best Dividend Stocks for 2012 – Mortgage REITs

Attractive Returns to Continue, Prefer Non-Agency REITs

Prefer non-Agency: Heading into 2012 we think that the hybrid/non-Agency REITs generally offer more attractive value with the potential for more capital appreciation plus a more stable dividend outlook given the attractive reinvestment environment.

TWO remains top pick: Against this framework Two Harbors remains our top pick among the mortgage REITs.  The company has been opportunistically adding to its non-Agency position at incrementally accretive risk-adjusted yields.  This combined with the Agency portfolio with favorable prepayment characteristics gives us confidence in the sustainability of the current 16.8% yield.

Agency MBS: While the net interest spread opportunity in the Agency MBS space contracted during 2011 the returns remain attractive by historical standards.  In addition the reduced uncertainty around the prepay environment, specifically government actions, should make for a more predictable return path than in 2011.

Non-Agency MBS: In 2012 we continue to see the spread environment remaining attractive on a risk-adjusted basis with incremental spreads higher than the existing realized spreads.  It is more challenging to know how the securities will perform on a mark to market basis, which will be dependent on the broader
market risk appetite over the short-term.

Capital Raising: Given the attractive level of returns we see that the mortgage REITs will continue to have an appetite to raise additional capital.  The current gating factor is stock prices; current valuations would generally not allow the mortgage REITs to raise new stock at a price below book value.  We see the need for 6-7% premium in the group for offerings to become more likely.

Valuation: The relationship between price to book and ROE is less correlated today than it has been in the past as investors are putting a greater premium on safety versus returns.  This results in higher price to book multiples for the Agency REITs versus the broader group of hybrids.

The table below displays the mortgage REITs with the highest equity score (compellation of analyst opinions with 10 being Very Bullish).

Mortgage REITs for 2012,

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Dividends from High Quality, High Yield Stocks

With so many companies being affected by the financial crisis, it’s important for income investors to find dependable dividend payers that they can count on. With projections for a slower growth economy amid historically low interest rates, it’s now more important than ever to find these solid dividend paying companies as there are fewer places to turn to for high yielding investments without taking on unwelcomed risk.  By screening for stocks with market beating yields, double digit growth rates, above median increasing cash flows and a strong balance sheet, this screen seeks to do just that by finding those companies that could turn into long-term core holdings for an income producing portfolio.

If you have not heard of TWO, then take note as this is a 9 on a 10 point scale.  Two Harbors Investment (TWO) is a holding company. The company operates as a real estate investment trust focused on investing in, financing and managing residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and related investments. The company is externally managed and advised by PRCM Advisers LLC. The company’s target assets include the following: Agency RMBS, Non-Agency RMBS, and Financial assets other than RMBS, which include asset-backed securities and certain hedging transactions.

TWO is trading at $9.23 with a high dividend yield of 17%.  Yes, yields this high are scary but TWO is similar to Annaly as a mortage REIT.  EPS increased from $1.09 to an estimated $1.43 over the past 5 quarters indicating an improving growth rate. Analyst forecasts have recently been raised.  Company recently reported better than expected results.

Screening Criteria:
Dividend Yield Greater than or Equal to 5.00%; EPS Growth (Proj this Yr vs. Last Yr) – Greater than or Equal to 10.00%; P/E (This Year’s Estimate)Less than or Equal to 20.0; Cash Flow Growth Rate (TTM vs. Prior TTM) Greater than or Equal to 0.06%; Interest Coverage (Most Recent Qtr) Greater than or Equal to 3.0x; Security Price Greater than or Equal to $5.00.


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List of High Quality, High Yield Dividend Stocks

We have a new list of high yield dividend stocks that are also filtered by being high quailty stocks.  The filters are shown in the table below.  These stock criteria include a buy or hold rating from Zacks Research, a projected EPS of 10% or greater, cashflow growth rate of 0.06% or greater, etc.

Is Rated Buy or Hold
Dividend Yield Greater than or Equal to 5.00%
EPS Growth (Proj this Yr vs. Last Yr) Greater than or Equal to 10.00%
P/E (This Year’s Estimate) Less than or Equal to 20.0
Cash Flow Growth Rate (TTM vs. Prior TTM) Greater than or Equal to 0.06%
Interest Coverage (Most Recent Qtr) Greater than or Equal to 3.0x
Security Price Greater than or Equal to $5.00
Volume (90 day Average) Greater than or Equal to 50.0K


The list of stocks passing this hurdle are shown in the graph below.  The most impressive stock is Two Harbors (TWO) which sports an 18% yield due to a recent price decline.  TWO has NO long-term debt which is great for a REIT and is rated a strong buy by many analyst,  Here is a detailed company description:

Two Harbors Investment Corp. (TWO) is an real estate investment trust (REIT), which focuses on investing in, financing and managing residential
mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). The Company focuses on investing in the asset classes, which includes agency RMBS, non-agency RMBS and financial assets other than RMBS, consisting of approximately 5% to 10% of the portfolio. Two Harbors is externally managed and advised by PRCM Advisers LLC. Capitol Acquisition Corp. (Capitol) is a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of Two Harbors. On October 28, 2009, Two Harbors Merger Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company merged with Capitol.

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