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Posts Tagged ‘Cash-secured PUT trading’

Income Option Trade for a 12% Return

In our Monthly Income Report, we look for opportunities to utilize option selling to generate consistent income. While we focus on selling cash-secured puts and covered calls on high quality stocks, we sometimes identify high return trades for increased income. These are stocks with positive confirmation and continuing chart trend based on technical analysis. This month we have identified a stock with a bullish technical indicator that has potential to generate a 12% return in only 40 days.

The option trade for monthly income:

Stock: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizer, and other nitrogen products. The Company’s nitrogen fertilizer products are ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN) and ammonium nitrate (AN). Its other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to the Company’s industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium or NPKs). The Company’s segments include ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN and other.

The stock has pulled back from its February levels due to industry pricing pressures. Revenues are likely to rise 13% in 2017 and 6.9% in 2018, after falling 15% in 2016. We see steady North American fertilizer demand growth in 2017, but some pressure on prices. However, new production is likely to lead to increased volumes for CF in 2017. We think market conditions will start to improve with this earnings release as capacity additions slow and Chinese capacity reductions continue.

This stock has formed a diamond bottom pattern (Bullish), providing a target stock price for the short-term above $30 per share. We think the stock can hit the target price within 6 weeks or less. The price recently displayed stronger RSI and positive PMO movements signaling a new uptrend has been established. The Short-Term KST indicator has triggered a bullish signal by rising above its moving average.

Recent bullish option flow has been detected in CF Industries with 5,006 calls trading, 3x expected, and implied volatility increasing almost 4 points to 41.09%. Aug-17 32.5 calls and Aug-17 30 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 2,500 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.22. Earnings are expected on August 2nd.

Sell PUT Option for Monthly Income

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strategy: CF is currently trading at $27.89 per share. We want to sell a cash-secured put option on CF using the August 2017 30 Call. For each 100 shares of CF you want to control, sell one August 30 PUT option for a $3.00 credit or better. That’s potentially a 12.0% assigned return in 40 days.

Exit Trade: Be prepared to exit the PUT (buy to close) when the stock price moves above $30 to lock in profits. If not, there is a chance the stock may be put to investors. If this happens, then investors can sell covered calls for monthly income until the stock is called away.

This is a higher risk trade than we normally place in the Monthly Income Report. However, this is a nice setup with a high volatility play, positive chart technical confirmation and increased premium from selling options for monthly income.

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