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Posts Tagged ‘technical analysis’

Factors Affecting Option Prices

While there are many factors that determine option prices, stock option premiums move in unison with the underlying stock price.  The most popular method for determining option value is the Black-Scholes Model.  There are six factors in this model:

  1. Stock price is the most important factor in an options price as changes in stock price affect the price of options on the stock;
  2. Strike price has an affect on option price through intrinsic value, time value, delta and other factors;
  3. Time to expiration is the time remaining before an option expires.  Due to time decay, option values can decrease at a faster rate when the option is closer to expiration;
  4. Stock volatility is the standard deviation of a stocks price variations over a fixed period of time.  The more volatile the stock, the more likely its price will move and the option price will increase with high volatility;
  5. Interest rates have little affect on option prices but they are part of the Black-Scholes model;
  6. Stock dividends also have little affect on option prices since they are already included in the stocks price by market forces.

There are other forces that can affect the price of options that are not included in the Black-Sholes model such as:

    • Supply and demand for the stock
    • Liquidity or volume of the option
    • Markets expectation of future events such as earnings, etc.
    • Markets expectation of future price direction of the stock

I have created an investment that achieves higher monthly returns while managing stock risks in the trade. You may be skeptical of this concept and should be when you hear something like this introduced into your trading plan. To explain, let’s look at what must happen to a stock price for a successful PUT selling trade. To keep the premium from the PUT sell, the stock price must be above the PUT option strike price at expiration. To increase my percent of winning PUT trades, I invest in stocks with price momentum moving higher. This increases the probability of the stock price closing above the strike price – giving us more winning trades.

How do I identify these winning trades? I combine the fundamentals of a stock with its price performance on its stock chart. I find securities that have a positive change in price that creates upward price momentum. You may have heard about price breakouts and other upward biased chart patterns. This introduces a concept of technical analysis into our trading plan.

Technical analysis uses stock price movements and trading activity as the basis for drawing a conclusion about where the price may be headed. It is based on the premise that prices move in trends that tend to continue until something changes to affect the balance of supply and demand for the stock. These changes can be detected by analyzing prior changes, looking for recurring patterns that indicate a price trend, or indicate areas of support and resistance that may influence the price direction.

We continue to identify winning option trades to generate income and to exit early as the stock bullish patterns moves prices higher.

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You Can Help End Poverty

Income Opportunity for 40% Option Trade

As income investors, we seek to create consistent monthly income by selling options to collect monthly premiums. This has been successful for our investors for years. Option selling offers another method to diversify investing strategies beyond traditional dividend investing. We have combined technical stock events with our strategy to identify high returns option selling opportunities. This income trade will generate a return of 40% annualized.

Stock: STMicroelectronics N.V., (STM) together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets semiconductor products, and subsystems and modules worldwide. STM has strengthened its ecosystem through a Partner Program that connects customers with qualified technical specialists capable of strategically supporting their projects.

We have identified a bullish “Continuation Diamond” chart pattern. This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $17.44 to the range of $20. The pattern formed over 114 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.

STMicroelectronics has a current support price of 17.04 and a resistance level of 17.46 that has been broken this week.

A Continuation Diamond (Bullish) is considered a bullish signal, indicating that the current uptrend may continue. Prices create higher highs and lower lows in a broadening pattern, then the trading range gradually narrows after the highs peak and the lows start trending upward. The technical event occurs when prices break upward out of the diamond formation to continue the prior uptrend, which confirms the pattern.

Monthly Income Option Trade

Strategy: We have an opportunity to sell options for income with STM as the stock should trade higher in the coming weeks. I recommend to place your trade and exit when you have locked in profits due to the stock price moving higher. Our goal here is to make income short term so we can exit and compound capital into another trade.

For medium risk option trade, look to sell an October 2017 17.5 PUT for about $0.80. This creates a return of 4.8% with 6 weeks to expiration.

For a conservative trade, you can setup a covered call trade. You can purchase 100 shares of STM and sell an October 17.5 CALL option for about $0.80.

We continue to identify winning option trades to generate income and to exit early as the stock bullish patterns moves prices higher.

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Monthly Income from Option Trade

Income Trade Opportunity in JP Morgan (JPM)

For subscribers, we have been selling puts on JP Morgan (JPM) for several months. We consider this a perpetual income play by selling options for monthly premiums. In fact, we have collected over $1500 in monthly cash during the past 6 months! This is a great way to create investing income that exceed the typical dividend strategy.

As income investors, we seek to create consistent monthly income by selling options to collect monthly premiums. This has been successful for our investors for years. Option selling offers another method to diversify investing strategies beyond traditional dividend investing. We have combined technical stock events with our strategy to identify high returns option selling opportunities. This income trade will generate a return of 13% annual return.

Stock: JPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a financial services company worldwide. It operates through Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management segments.

We have identified a “Continuation Diamond (Bullish)” chart pattern formed on JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM on NYSE). This bullish signal indicates that the price may rise from the close of 93.11 to the range of 105.00 – 107.00. The pattern formed over 143 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved.

JPMorgan Chase & Co has a current support price of 91.28 and a resistance level of 93.19.

The RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is positive and below its signal line. The stock could retrace in the short term. Moreover, the stock is trading above both its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 92.13 and 89.17). JPMorgan Chase is currently trading near its 52 week high reached at 94.51 on 06/07/17.

Strategy: We want to sell a cash secured put on JPM using the September 2017 92.5 PUT. For each 100 shares of JPM stock you buy, sell one Sept 92.5 PUT for a $1.35 credit or better. That’s potentially a 1.5% return in 41 days or 13.3% annualized return compared to a 2.1% annual dividend yield.

For investors wanting to take a long position in JPM, this lowers the stock price for entry as each premium received lowers your initial cost basis. You can continue to sell monthly put options until the stock is put to you. Then, you can sell covered calls each month for additional monthly income. And, you collect the stock dividend.

This is a great example of how investors can create monthly cash from these income producing strategies. This is an excellent way to create a side hustle income without consuming too much of your time each day. For others, they have built an income large enough to live on without being employed by the man. When your monthly income exceeds your living expenses, you have achieved financial independence.

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How to Generate a 10% Return in 45 Days

In our Monthly Income Report, we look for opportunities to utilize option selling to generate income. While we focus on selling cash-secured puts and covered calls on high quality stocks, we sometimes identify high return trades. We like to have 2 or more stock or company events leading to positive confirmation that the stock will continue its trend. This month we have identified a stock with a bullish technical indicator that has potential to generate a 10% return in only 45 days.

Stock: Alkermes plc (ALKS) is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the researching, developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products that are designed to address medical needs of patients in therapeutic areas. The Company has a portfolio of marketed drug products and a clinical pipeline of products that address central nervous system (CNS) disorders, such as schizophrenia, depression, addiction and multiple sclerosis (MS).

Alkermes just announced positive preliminary top line results from ENLIGHTEN-1, the first of two key phase 3 studies in the ENLIGHTEN clinical development program for ALKS 3831, an investigational, novel, once-daily, oral atypical antipsychotic drug candidate for the treatment of schizophrenia. ENLIGHTEN-1 was a multinational, double-blind, randomized, phase 3 study that evaluated the antipsychotic efficacy, safety and tolerability of ALKS 3831 compared to placebo over four weeks in 403 patients experiencing an acute exacerbation of schizophrenia. The study also included a comparator arm of olanzapine, an established atypical antipsychotic agent with proven efficacy.

ALKS will announce earnings on July 27 but should be positive on this news.

This stock has formed a pattern called Flag (Bullish), providing a target price for the short-term in the range of 61.50 to 62.30 (see chart below). We think the stock can hit the target price within 6 weeks or less. The price recently crossed above its moving average signaling a new uptrend has been established. While we like the upside potential in ALKS, we want to protect the downside against market changes.

Technical Setup on Alkermes ALKS

Strategy: We want to sell a covered call on Alkermes using the August 2017 60 Call. For each 100 shares of ALKS stock you buy, sell one August 60 covered call option for a $54.50 ($58.70 – $4.20) debit or better. That’s potentially a 10.0% assigned return with a 7% downside protection. If you want more downside protection, you can purchase an August 55 PUT for less than $2.00 per option.

This is a higher risk trade than we normally place in the Monthly Income Report. However, this is a nice setup with a positive news announcement, positive technical confirmation and increased premium from selling options for income.

Let more about creating monthly income here.

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