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Where to Find a 15% Dividend Yield

Investors do not have many choices when looking for income today. Aside from vehicles like annuities, the only place for income is dividend stocks. The dividends will increase with inflation and the stock price will appreciate over time. And many dividend stocks pay more income than the 10-year bond! This is how I like to look at dividend stocks – what I will earn over the next 10 years.

You may ask why I take the long-term outlook. There are many variables affecting the markets that I can’t control or even predict such a significant financial crash (dot com crash, housing bubble, etc.) or market correction. However, if you are in the right stocks you will still earn dividend income and make money over the long-term.

In the U.S., S&P 500 dividends last year were 55% higher than in 2007, the peak of the last cycle, while earnings were up only 29%. Dividends over the past five years have grown at an annualized 13%. Look beyond the recent past and dividends have been vital to long-run returns. Indeed, U.S. shares were worth the same in July 1982 as in June 1901, adjusted for inflation, according to data compiled by Prof. Robert Shiller of Yale. All returns that topped inflation over that period came from reinvesting dividends. Their power is well known: An investor who bought U.S. shares in 1900 has made 2.1% a year in capital, but a total of 6.4% a year once dividends were reinvested, according to Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of London Business School.

While dividends are an important component to stock returns, I don’t think they are priced into all dividend stocks to reflect their true value. Here is a good example. Income investors will flock to a stock like Altria Group (MO), the tobacco stock, because it is known as a good dividend stock. MO trades around $65 and has a dividend yield of 3.5% so it is interesting as a income purchase. MO already pays out 74% of its earnings as dividends so there is no upside in the dividend payout ratio. EPS are projected to grow at 8% per year so there is upside to increased dividends. However, the forward P/E ratio is at 21 so the stock is priced high due to its income potential. According to my proprietary stock valuation model, MO should be priced near $60 so some of the future growth is already priced in the stock. I will only buy Altria on a pullback below this level.

The income investor should have a blend of stocks producing high income today and some that will continue to growth their dividends in the future. Altria produces income today! Take a stock like Expedia (EXPE), online travel stock, that has a current dividend yield of 1% while trading at $111 per share. Not a stock that an income investor would look to for dividends. However, if you look forward 10 years, EXPE may produce a dividend yield on cost near 15%. How is this possible? Simply because EXPE is projected to grow EPS by over 20% per year in the coming years. And its current dividend payout ratio is only 20%. If the EPS materialize and the payout ratio hits 50% in 10 years, then you can earn a 15% yield based on the current market price of Expedia. In case you are wondering, EXPE is significantly underpriced today based on its future growth rate as it has a forward PEG of 0.83.

Where can you buy a potential 15% yield today? For investors looking for future income, they should add some dividend income and growth stocks to their portfolio.

Get more growth and income stocks here.

Lodging Around for Growth and Income

Chesapeake Lodging Trust (NYSE: CHSP) is a self-advised lodging real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investments primarily in upper-upscale hotels in major business and convention markets and, on a selective basis, premium select-service hotels in urban settings or unique locations in the United States. The Trust owns 15 hotels with an aggregate of 4,722 rooms in seven states and the District of Columbia.

Chesapeake Lodging Trust reported its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2012 with a 8.9% increase in RevPAR for comparable 10-hotel portfolio over the same period in 2011.  For the quarter, the Trust produced EPS of $0.21 compared to $0.18 a year ago.  For the 9 months, the Trust produced EPS of $0.47 compared to $0.21 a year ago, an increase of 124%.

On August 21, 2012, the Trust acquired the 520-room W Chicago – Lakeshore located inChicago, Illinois for approximately $124.9 million, including acquired working capital. The Trust funded the acquisition with available cash on hand and a borrowing under its revolving credit facility. The Trust entered into a long-term management agreement with Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc. to continue operating the hotel under the W flag.

On September 7, 2012, the Trust acquired the 429-room Hyatt Regency Mission Bay Spa andMarina located in San Diego, California for approximately $59.8 million, including acquired working capital. The Trust funded the acquisition with available cash on hand and a borrowing under its revolving credit facility. The Trust assumed the existing management agreement with Hyatt Hotels Corporation.

Chesapeake Lodging Trust announced that its board of trustees has declared a dividend payment of $.22 per common share. The dividend will be paid on January 15, 2013 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 31, 2012. The dividend represents a 5% annualized yield based on the closing price of the Trust’s common shares on December 12, 2012.  Chesapeake Lodging has a current dividend yield of 4.08% which was increased 10% in the past year.

Chesapeake Lodging is projected to grow EPS by 19.8% in 2013.  First Call consensus has a BUY recommendation with a 1.7 rating.  Chesapeake Lodging has an equity summary score of 7.5 out of 10 for a Bullish outlook.

Chesapeake Lodging Trust (NYSE: CHSP) has a 12-month price target of $26.50.

How to Invest in Chinese Real Estate

China’s home prices edged up for a sixth straight month in November, a private survey showed, reinforcing signs of a gentle recovery in the property market as the government seeks to bolster economic growth.  The average home price in China’s 100 biggest cities rose 0.3 percent in November from October to 8,791 yuan ($1,400) per square metre, accelerating from October’s 0.2 increase, the China Real Estate Index System (CREIS).

The China market has rallied since summer as the iShares FTSE China 25 Index fund (FXI) is up 20% over the past 6 months.  A more direct play on Chinese real estate is in shares of SouFun Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: SFUN) which is the leading real estate and home furnishing Internet portal in China.  Soufun is up around 90% in the past 5 months as the Chinese real estate market has improved.

SouFun has built a large and active community of users who are attracted by the comprehensive real estate and home furnishing and improvement content available on its portal that forms the foundation of its service offerings. SouFun currently maintains 106 offices to focus on local market needs and its website and database contains real estate-related content coverage of 314 cities in China.

SouFun Holdings had Q3 EPS of $49.2 million, or $0.61 per diluted share, compared to consensus estimate of $0.55 per share earnings.  Revenues were $127.2 million, which is also above the $122.34 million analysts’ estimate.  In the same period last year, net income attributable to SouFun Holdings Limited was $42.9 million, or $0.52 per diluted share, on revenues of $108.6 million.

The company has also raised its revenue guidance for fiscal year of 2012 from between $390 million and $410 million to between $400 million and $420 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6% to 22.2%.

SouFun has an annual dividend rate of 8.67%.  Soufun has paid dividends on an annual basis but there is a chance of the increase in frequency of distributions as the real estate market continues to recover.

SouFun Holdings has am equity summary score of 7.5 out of 10 for a Bullish Outlook.  First Call analysts have a BUY recommendation with 2.0 rating.  Based on 2013 EPS of $2.21, the 12-month price target is $29.

3 High Yield REITs with a Bullish Outlook

Shares of high yielding REITs have been relatively flat in August.  The Vanguard REIT ETF (VNQ), which tracks the performance of an index that measures the performance of publicly traded equity REITs, is up over 14 percent this year, nearly double the Dow Jones gain of 8 percent over the same period.  Investors have looked to mortgage REITs to take advantage of the recovering U.S. housing market. Mortgage REITs do not directly invest in real estate but invest in the mortgages on real estate properties.

While the housing market has gone from bad to less bad, these REITs have just declared higher dividends for their investors.  Each of these REITs has high dividend yields over 10% with a Bullish outlook.

Newcastle Investment Corp. (NYSE: NCT) announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.22 per common share for the third quarter of 2012, representing a 10% increase from the prior quarter’s dividend of $0.20per common share. The dividend is payable on October 31, 2012 to shareholders of record on October 1, 2012.  Newcastle has a current dividend yield of 10.3%.

Newcastle Investment announced that it has completed the sale of 100% of its interests in CDO X in connection with the liquidation and termination of CDO X.  Newcastle received $130 million for $89.75 million face amount of subordinated notes and all of its equity in CDO X.  The sale and resulting deconsolidation of CDO X from the Company’s balance sheet will eliminate the impact of CDO X’s negative net book value and generate an approximately $200 million gain for the third quarter.

Newcastle has an equity summary score of 8.7 out of 10 for a Bullish outlook.  First Call analysts’ consensus has a Buy rating of 1.7.  Newcastle has a 12-month price target of $8.75.

Newcastle Investment (operated as a REIT) focuses on investing in and actively managing opportunistic investments in real estate related assets. The Company primarily invests in two distinct areas: (1) Residential Servicing and Securities and (2) Commercial Real Estate Debt and Other Assets.

The Board of Directors of CreXus Investment Corp. (NYSE: CXS) declared the third quarter 2012 common stock cash dividend of $0.32 per common share.  This dividend is payable October 25, 2012 to common shareholders of record on October 1, 2012. The ex-dividend date is September 27, 2012.

This is an 18.5% increase from the prior dividend of $0.27.  CreXus Investment has a current dividend yield of 10.2%.  EPS is projected to increase 21% in 2013 and 18% in 2014.

CreXus has an equity summary score of 7.6 out of 10 for a Bullish outlook.  First Call analysts’ consensus has a Buy rating of 2.3.  CreXus has a 12-month price target of $12.50.

CreXus (operated as a REIT) acquires, manages and finances, directly or through its subsidiaries, commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate debt, commercial real property, commercial mortgage-backed securities and other commercial and residential real estate-related assets.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) announced that its Board of Directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.27 per share on shares of its common stock for the quarter ending September 30, 2012. The dividend will be payable on October 25, 2012 to common stockholders of record as of September 28, 2012.  New York Mortgage has a current dividend yield of 14.5%.

New York Mortgage has completed an underwritten registered public offering of 10,000,000 shares of common stock at $6.73 per share.  New York Mortgage also granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 1,500,000 shares of common stock.  The proceeds will be used to purchase more assets.

New York Mortgage has an equity summary score of 9.0 out of 10 for a Bullish outlook.  First Call analysts’ consensus has a Buy rating of 2.0.  New York Mortgage has a 12-month price target of $8.25.

New York Mortgage invests in mortgage-related and financial assets and targets multi-family CMBS and Agency RMBS, including Agency RMBS consisting of adjustable-rate and hybrid adjustable-rate RMBS and Agency IOs consisting of interest only and inverse interest only RMBS that represent the right to the interest component of the cash flow from a pool of mortgage loans.

Mortgage REITs are Still a BUY Following QE3

Last week, the Fed announced it will purchase an additional $40 billion per month of Agency MBS. The purchase time frame is open-ended, but will be reviewed as economic developments dictate. In addition to additional purchases, the Fed also extended the commitment to keep interest rates low to at least mid-2015.  We believe that the FED decision is a positive for Mortgage REITS.

In the short term, we may see some profit taking.  Longer term, we believe the technical picture appears extremely strong and fundamentals such as carry and prepays remain favorable.

In addition, investors have looked to mortgage REITs to take advantage of the recovering U.S. housing market. Mortgage REITs do not directly invest in real estate but invest in the mortgages on real estate properties.  The Vanguard REIT ETF — which tracks the performance of an index that measures the performance of publicly traded equity REITs — is up over 15 percent for the year, outperforming the Dow Jones Industrial by a large margin.

We see AMTG, MTGE and AGNC as best positioned to benefit from the announcement given the mix of lower coupon fixed-rate MBS in the portfolio.  As is the case, the positives for book value are offset by lower reinvestment yields on new MBS purchases given the spread tightening.

Apollo Residential Mortgage, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTG) is a real estate investment trust that invests in and manages residential mortgage-backed securities and other residential mortgage assets throughout the United States.  Apollo Residential Mortgage is trading at $22.488, near its 52-week high.  Apollo Residential Mortgage has a current dividend yield of 13.97%.  Apollo Residential Mortgage is rated a 1.8 (STRONG BUY rating) by First Call analysts.

American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. (NASDAQ: MTGE) is a real estate investment trust formed in 2011 that invests in and manages a leveraged portfolio of agency mortgage investments, non-agency mortgage investments and other mortgage-related investments.  American Capital Mortgage is trading at $23.23, near its 52-week high.  American Capital Mortgage has a current dividend yield of 13.73%.  American Capital Mortgage is rated a 2.1 (BUY rating) by First Call analysts.

American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC) invests only in fixed-rate agency securities where payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government or government-owned entities, such as Fannie Mae (FNMA), Freddie Mac (FHLMC) and Ginnie Mae (GNMA).   American Capital Agency is trading at $36.49, near its 52-week high.  American Capital Agency has a current dividend yield of 13.7%.  American Capital Agency is rated a 2.2 (BUY rating) by First Call analysts.

Buy this BDC for Rising Earnings and a 11% Dividend Yield

Rising earnings estimates on the back of strong second quarter results – including a 48.2% earnings surprise – have helped TICC Capital Corp (NASDAQ: TICC) achieve a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) on August 30.  Moreover, this non-diversified management investment company has delivered an average surprise of 28.2% over the past four quarters.

With a solid year-to-date return of 20% and a history of beating quarterly earnings estimates, this stock offers an attractive investment opportunity.

Better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and steady improvement in investment portfolio are the primary rank drivers for this stock.  Moreover, continued improvement in investment income will help improve its profitability in the upcoming quarters.

On August 20, TICC CAPITAL completed an underwritten public offering of 3,450,000 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $9.65 per share for total estimated gross proceeds of $33.3 million.  This capital will serve as growth for investments in the coming quarters.

On July 30, TICC Capital reported second-quarter 2012 net investment income of 40 cents per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 27 cents by 48.2% and the year-ago earnings of 29 cents by 37.9%.

Total investment income of $20.5 million surged 83.8% from the year-ago quarter. Significantly higher (almost 87%) total investment income from non-affiliated/non-control investments was primarily responsible for the surge.

The fair value of TICC Capital’s total investment portfolio was $439.2 million as of June 30, 2012, up 12.2% from $391.5 million as of December 31, 2011. During the second quarter, the company provided approximately $62.1 million debt funding to new and existing portfolio companies.

TICC Capital’s Board of Directors has increased its dividend by 7.4% to $0.29 per share distribution for the third quarter this year, payable on September 28, 2012, to shareholders of record as of September 14, 2012.  TICC Capital had a very strong second quarter, as reflected by their having deployed approximately $62.1 million of capital, consistent with their investment strategy, as well as by their taxable income continuing to equal or exceed dividend distributions.

TICC Capital has a current dividend yield of 11.15%.  TICC Capital has increased its dividend 16% in the last year.

TICC Capital has a 12-month target price of $11.30.

TICC Capital Corp. is a business development company primarily engaged in providing capital to technology-related companies.  TICC concentrates its investments in companies having annual revenues of less than two hundred million dollar and/or a market capitalization or enterprise value of less than three hundred million dollar, with a focus on businesses.

HollyFrontier Corporation Announces Special and Regular Dividends

HollyFrontier Corporation (HFC) announced today that its Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend in the amount of $0.50 per share, payable on September 4, 2012 to holders of record of common stock on August 27, 2012.

The Board of Directors also approved a regular quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share. This dividend will be paid on October 2, 2012 to all holders of record of common stock on September 10, 2012.

Mike Jennings, CEO and President of HollyFrontier  said, “After last week’s outstanding second quarter results, our Board of Directors authorized another special dividend, the fifth since our July 2011 merger. Over the last twelve months we have returned$2.42 per share in cash to shareholders through regular and special dividends, which equates to a more than 6% yield on today’s closing price of $39.59 per share.”

Subscribers to the Get Rich Monthly Income Plan have an YTD return on HFC of 96% (excluding recent special dividend) from investing in a perpetual covered call position.  MIP investors also collected a $0.50 special dividend from HFC in June 2012.

Spectrum Brands Announces Special Dividend

Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc.(SPB) is initiating a $0.25 per share quarterly common stock dividend starting in fiscal 2013 – expected to be paid in March, June, September and December each year – and declared a one-time special dividend of $1.00 per share to be paid on Sept. 18 to shareholders as of Aug. 27. Shares are trading at $36.41 for a one-time special dividend yield of 2.75%.

Spectrum started out making Rayovac batteries in 1906, and now controls a portfolio of consumer-product brands from Remington shavers to Cutter bug spray. In late December, the company completed its $140 million acquisition of FURminator, which makes dog and cat grooming tools and accessories.

For the quarter ended July 1, Spectrum reported a profit of $58.7 million, or $1.13 a share, up from $28.6 million, or 56 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding restructuring, acquisition and other items, earnings rose to 78 cents a share from 66 cents.  Sales edged up 2.5% to $824.8 million.

Company profile:

Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc (SPB,) a member of the Russell 2000 Index, is a diversified, global consumer products company and a leading supplier of batteries, shaving and grooming products, personal care products, small household appliances, specialty pet supplies, lawn & garden and home pest control products, personal insect repellents and portable lighting. Helping to meet the needs of consumers worldwide, our Company offers a broad portfolio of market-leading, well-known and widely trusted brands including Rayovac®, Remington®, Varta®, George Foreman®, Farberware®, Black & Decker®, Russell Hobbs®, Toastmaster®, Tetra®, Marineland®, Nature’s Miracle®, Dingo®, 8-in-1®, FURminator®, Littermaid®, Spectracide®, Cutter®, Repel®, Hot Shot® and Black Flag®. Spectrum Brands Holdings’  products are sold by the world’s top 25 retailers and are available in more than one million stores in approximately 120 countries. With 6,000 employees in 43 countries, Spectrum Brands Holdings reported fiscal 2011 net sales of approximately $3.2 billion.

A High Yield Play on Lower Corn Yields

The U.S. cut its corn-harvest estimate 12 percent and said inventories next year will be smaller than fore cast in June as the worst Midwest drought since 1988 erodes prospects for a record crop.  With the increase in corn prices, companies using corn will be hit with higher expenses while those increasing corn yields will prosper.  The rise in corn prices will affect food prices as corn is a primary food source for livestock.  Investors must be wary of how the increase in corn prices may affect their portfolios.

Crop conditions as of July were the worst for that date since the drought of 1988, government data show.  Tighter supplies than expected may boost costs for ethanol makers including Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) and several meat producers.  Investors are lightening up on their protein diets, unloading shares of Sanderson Farms Inc. (SAFM), Pilgrim’s Pride Corp. (PPC) and Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) over the past month amid a swift rise in futures prices for feed grains.

Fertilizer stocks are moving higher after the government reported greater than expected damage to corn crops.  Shares of fertilizer makers CF Industries (CF), Potash (POT) and Mosaic (MOS) have already made a significant move up in price.  In addition, one fertilizer stock to watch was an IPO in November 2011 that pays a high dividend yield.

Rentech Nitrogen (RNF) was formed by Rentech, Inc. to own, operate and expand its nitrogen fertilizer business.  Rentech Nitrogen’s assets consist of a nitrogen fertilizer facility located in East Dubuque, Illinois, owned by Rentech Nitrogen, LLC, the operating subsidiary of Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P.  The facility is located in the Mid Corn Belt in the northwestern corner of Illinois, adjacent to the Iowa and Wisconsin state lines, and produces primarily anhydrous ammonia and urea ammonium nitrate solution, using natural gas as its primary feedstock, for sale to customers in the Mid Corn Belt.

Rentech Nitrogen Partners, L.P. (RNF) announced today the declaration of a cash distribution of $1.17 per common unit for the second quarter of 2012. The distribution is payable on August 14, 2012 to holders of record as of August 7, 2012.  RNF is trading at $30.56 at the time of this writing.

This will be the second cash distribution paid by Rentech Nitrogen since its initial public offering (IPO) in November 2011, and will result in cumulative cash distributions since the IPO of $2.23 per common unit.  Of that amount, $1.70 relates to the twelve months ending December 31, 2012, and $0.53 relates to the period from the IPO through December 31, 2011.

Rentech Nitrogen believes that it is well positioned to exceed its forecast of cash available for distribution in the range of $2.86 per common unit for the twelve months ending December 31, 2012.  RNF is trading at $30.56 at the time of this writing.  Based on $2.86 in dividends, RNF has a dividend yield of 9.36%.  Based on the current year EPS, RNF trades at a PE of 10.8.  RNF has a Forward EPS Long Term Growth (3-5 Yrs) of 12%.

The Partnership will provide details on its guidance during its previously announced conference call to discuss financial results for its 2012 second quarter on August 3, 2012.

Revenues for the three months ended March 31, 2012 were $38.5 million, as compared to$23.9 million for the comparable period in the prior year. Current period revenues benefited from higher sales prices caused by a combination of low levels of grain and fertilizer inventories and expectations of higher corn acreage in 2012.  An early spring application window, strong nitrogen demand, strong plant production and on-stream time, and low natural gas prices contributed to the exceptional results for RNF.  During the quarter, RNF operated the plant at maximum capacity to take advantage of the strong market dynamics.

RNF continues to benefit from relatively low North American natural gas prices, which, when coupled with strong nitrogen product prices, resulted in gross profit margin of 59% for the period, up from 43% for the comparable period in the prior year.

Booz Allen sees special dividend of $1Billion

Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) disclosed in a filing that the company’s management is exploring, subject to continuing management review and to further consideration and ultimate approval by the company’s Board of Directors, the possible refinancing of approximately $959M of indebtedness outstanding under its senior secured credit facilities with funded debt under new senior secured credit facilities of up to $1.75B. The new senior secured credit facilities would also be expected to include a revolving credit facility of approximately $500M.

The net proceeds remaining after refinancing existing indebtedness, together with cash on hand of up to approximately $260M, would be expected to be used, subject to continuing management review and to further consideration and ultimate approval by the company’s Board of Directors, principally to pay a special dividend to the stockholders of Booz Allen in an amount up to approximately $1B. Booz Allen is exploring this potential refinancing and use of proceeds in connection with the ongoing evaluation of its capital structure and deployment, taking into account a currently

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