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Income Option Trade for a 12% Return

In our Monthly Income Report, we look for opportunities to utilize option selling to generate consistent income. While we focus on selling cash-secured puts and covered calls on high quality stocks, we sometimes identify high return trades for increased income. These are stocks with positive confirmation and continuing chart trend based on technical analysis. This month we have identified a stock with a bullish technical indicator that has potential to generate a 12% return in only 40 days.

The option trade for monthly income:

Stock: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) manufactures and distributes nitrogen fertilizer, and other nitrogen products. The Company’s nitrogen fertilizer products are ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN) and ammonium nitrate (AN). Its other nitrogen products include diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), urea liquor, nitric acid and aqua ammonia, which are sold primarily to the Company’s industrial customers, and compound fertilizer products (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium or NPKs). The Company’s segments include ammonia, granular urea, UAN, AN and other.

The stock has pulled back from its February levels due to industry pricing pressures. Revenues are likely to rise 13% in 2017 and 6.9% in 2018, after falling 15% in 2016. We see steady North American fertilizer demand growth in 2017, but some pressure on prices. However, new production is likely to lead to increased volumes for CF in 2017. We think market conditions will start to improve with this earnings release as capacity additions slow and Chinese capacity reductions continue.

This stock has formed a diamond bottom pattern (Bullish), providing a target stock price for the short-term above $30 per share. We think the stock can hit the target price within 6 weeks or less. The price recently displayed stronger RSI and positive PMO movements signaling a new uptrend has been established. The Short-Term KST indicator has triggered a bullish signal by rising above its moving average.

Recent bullish option flow has been detected in CF Industries with 5,006 calls trading, 3x expected, and implied volatility increasing almost 4 points to 41.09%. Aug-17 32.5 calls and Aug-17 30 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 2,500 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.22. Earnings are expected on August 2nd.

Sell PUT Option for Monthly Income

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strategy: CF is currently trading at $27.89 per share. We want to sell a cash-secured put option on CF using the August 2017 30 Call. For each 100 shares of CF you want to control, sell one August 30 PUT option for a $3.00 credit or better. That’s potentially a 12.0% assigned return in 40 days.

Exit Trade: Be prepared to exit the PUT (buy to close) when the stock price moves above $30 to lock in profits. If not, there is a chance the stock may be put to investors. If this happens, then investors can sell covered calls for monthly income until the stock is called away.

This is a higher risk trade than we normally place in the Monthly Income Report. However, this is a nice setup with a high volatility play, positive chart technical confirmation and increased premium from selling options for monthly income.

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How to Sell Put Options for Income

Let’s walk through an example of how to sell a put. After careful selection of the right stock, you decide you would like to create a monthly income stream by selling puts each month on this stock. Let’s say the stock is currently trading at $70 in the market. After reviewing the option chain, you decide to sell the 67.5 put option on this stock that expires in one month. The 67.5 strike price is out of the money and will obligate you to buy the stock at $67.50 only if the put buyer decides to exercise the option on or before the expiration date. The put buyer will only exercise the option if they make money or if the stock price is below $67.50.

As the put seller (writer), you get to collect the cash premium for the option. In this case, let’s assume it is $200 per option contract or 100 shares of stock. The investor now has a risk of $67.50 – $200 = $65.50 per option contract sold. If this amount of $6550 per contract is in the investors brokerage account, this is a cash-secured put. The potential return is $200 which the put seller will keep regardless of the trade outcome.

The investors return is calculated as $200/$6550 or 3.05%. This is a nice return on a one month put option. On an annual basis, this is a return of 36.6%! This is why I sell put options for monthly income.

Here are the details of the trade:

1 Option = 100 Shares of Stock: In this example, we sold 1 put option. In other words, we sold someone the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of stock to us for $67.50 on or before the option’s one-month expiration date (usually the 3rd Friday of the month).

$ 2 = Our Options Premium: In exchange for giving someone (the put buyer) the right to sell us 100 shares of stock at $67.50, we get paid in cold-hard cash! In options lingo, we get paid in the form of a premium. In this example, our premium is $ 2 per share. Because each options contract equals 100 shares of stock, here our premium is $ 200. This $ 200 is deposited in our account at the time of the transactions. It is ours to keep no matter what transpires before expiration (the end of the contract).

There are 2 potential trade outcomes:

  1. The stock prices stays above the 67.5 option strike price so the put option expires worthless. Put yourself in the position of the options holder (the person that buys the put option from us). The put holder purchased the right, but not the obligation, to sell 100 shares of stock at $67.50 per share. Assume this put option expires in one month. If, at the end of that one-month expiration time period, the stock is trading at a price above $67.50, why would the put holder exercise his right to sell the stock at $67.50 when he can sell at a price above $67.50? They would not exercise the put option! The investor keeps the $200 premium and has a 3.05% return in one month.
  2. The stock declines in price and is below the 67.5 option strike price. The option will be exercised and the shares of stock will be sold to us at the strike price ($ 72.50 per share). Again, put yourself in the position of the put holder for a moment. If, at the time the put option is set to expire, the stock is trading at $65, and the put holder has the right to sell shares of stock at $67.50, why wouldn’t the put holder exercise his right to sell the stock at $67.50 per share? They would. So in this scenario, the cash we previously deposited into our brokerage account ($6750) is used to purchase the underlying shares that were “put” or sold to us. Our break-even point, also referred to as our “cost basis,” is now $65.50 ($67.50 per share we paid for the stock less the $ 2 per share put premium we received from the original sale of the put option). At this point, we own 100 shares of stock and can sell them or write a covered call trade.

This is a simple example of how to sell (write) a put option for monthly income. Once we do this each month we create a stream of cash flow to help us achieve financial independence.

Last month, we were successful on all put trades and averaged 3.5% return for the month.  Imagine making $3000 or more in income each month!   Start making more income each month by subscribing to the Monthly Income Plan.

Monthly Income Plan Newsletter

Signup below to receive a free copy of the Monthly Income Plan newsletter for October 2011.  This report contains a market update, list of monthly dividend payers, covered call trades, protective puts and calendar spreads.  Subscribe to Monthly Income Plan.

 


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