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Best Income Stocks for 2013 – Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc. (CCE)

Coca-Cola Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: CCE) produces, distributes, and markets nonalcoholic beverages. It provides still and sparkling waters, juices, sports drinks, juice drinks, coffee-based beverages, and teas.   Coca-Cola Enterprises is a great total income play with a 13.0% payoff and a projected increase in EPS of 10% in 2013 and 2014.

Coca-Cola Enterprises made the Goldman Sachs “Best Income Stocks” list for 2013.  In a recent note, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. pointed out a number of stocks that could provide some easy money for investors by virtue of what the Wall Street bank calls a “social contract” — a combination of earnings appreciation due to expected share buybacks along with dividend yields.  It could be easy money, provided shares remain stable or rise, for investors looking for as close to a guarantee as equities can offer.

Coca-Cola Enterprises is projected to have a 11.1% earnings accretion and a 1.9% dividend yield, for a total combined 13.0% payoff.  The Atlanta-based bottler of Coca-Cola is now trading in the mid-$30 range and has an upside of about 19%.

Coca-Cola Enterprises has an equity summary score of 7.6 out of 10 for a Bullish outlook.  First Call Analyst consensus has a HOLD recommendation with a 2.5 rating.

“Our 2012 results will reflect our ability to deliver solid earnings growth by closely managing each aspect of our business and continuing world class marketplace execution in difficult operating conditions,” said John F. Brock, chairman and chief executive officer. “Going forward, we will rely on our global operating framework, our successful brands, increased effectiveness through our business transformation effort, and the skill and dedication of our employees.

Coca-Cola Enterprises expects FY12 EPS at the high end of its previously disclosed range of $2.20 – $2.24, versus the Capital IQ consensus estimate of $2.23.  Net sales and operating income are expected to grow in a low to mid-single-digit range.

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It also anticipates FY13 comparable and currency neutral EPS to grow about 10%. Net sales and operating income are expected to grow in a mid-single-digit range.

CCE intends to increase its 2013 dividend payout to a range of 30% to 35% of 2013 comparable and currency neutral earnings per share.  This would be the sixth straight year of dividend increases and represents an expected annualized 2013 dividend increase of at least 15 percent above 2012.

The company has completed its most recent share repurchase program by reaching the cumulative 65 million maximum number of repurchased shares authorized by the Board of Directors.  During 2012, this resulted in 27 million shares or $780 million in shares repurchased.

Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.’s board approved a new $1.5 billion stock repurchase program.  The company said it expects to repurchase at least $500 million of stock during 2013.

Coca-Cola Enterprises, which was spun out of Coca-Cola Co. (KO) in 1986, sold its North American operations to Coca-Cola in 2010. Western Europe’s economic woes have posed a threat to demand for its soft drinks. The bottler also has grappled with higher taxes inFrance, aggressive competitive spending in the U.K. and the negative impact of currency translation.

The company reported in October its third-quarter earnings fell 7.4% as revenue slid 3.3%, though volume rose.  The Company will report 4Q earnings on February 7, 2013.

The soft drink industry is mature and highly concentrated. CCE conducts its business primarily under bottle contracts with KO. It has the exclusive right to produce and market CocaCola soft drinks in authorized containers in specified territories; KO has the ability, at its sole discretion, to set prices for concentrates and syrups. CCE’s competitors include the local bottlers of competing products and manufacturers of private label products. It competes with bottlers of products of PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) and its largest bottler Pepsi Americas (PAS), Nestle S.A. (NSRGY), Groupe Danone, Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT), and private label products, including those of some of its customers. In some territories, CCE sells products it competes against in other territories.

Get Rent Checks from the Government

Government Properties Income Trust (NYSE: GOV) is a real estate investment trust (REIT).  The Company was formed to invest in properties that are leased to government tenants.  The Company owns 29 properties, 25 of which are leased primarily to the United States Government and four of which are leased to the states of California, Maryland, Minnesota and South Carolina, respectively.  The Company is a wholly owned subsidiary of HRPT Properties Trust (HRPT).

As measured by square footage, the IRS is GOV’s biggest tenant.  The next-biggest tenant is U.S. Customs & Immigration. These two make up over 20% of GOV’s rental income. The next biggest in terms of rental income is the Department of Justice.

Government Properties announced that it priced a public offering of 7,500,000 common shares at a price to the public of $23.25 per share. GOV expects to use the net proceeds of this offering to repay amounts outstanding under its revolving credit facility and for general business purposes, including funding potential acquisitions.  Government Properties is currently trading at $22.25 or 4.5% below the share offering price.

Government Properties recently announced it has raised its regular quarterly common share distribution by $0.01 to $0.43per common share ($1.72 per share per year).  Government Properties has a current dividend yield of 7.73%.

Normalized FFO for the six months ended June 30, 2012 were $49.5 million, or $1.05 per share, compared to Normalized FFO for the six months ended June 30, 2011 of $40.5 million, or $1.00 per share.

Net income was $25.0 million, or $0.53 per share, for the six months ended June 30, 2012compared to $21.2 million, or $0.52 per share, for the same period last year.

Since its initial public offering in 2009, GOV has acquired nearly $1 billion of property, at an average cap rate of 8.7%.  Since April 1, 2012, GOV has acquired seven properties for an aggregate purchase price of$125.2 million.

Government Properties has an equity summary score of 8.3 out of 10 for a BULLISH outlook.  It has a 12-month price target of $26.50.

Homeowners Choice is a Strong Buy with Special Dividend

Homeowners Choice, Inc. (HCII) announced that its board of directors has declared a regular quarterly cash dividend on its common shares in the amount of $0.225 per share, which represents a 12.5% increase over the previous quarterly rate of $0.20 per share.  Homeowners Choice has a current dividend yield of 3.74%.

In addition, the board declared a special dividend of $0.10 per common share.  Both the regular quarterly dividend and the special dividend will be paid Dec. 21, 2012 to shareholders of record on the close of business Nov. 16, 2012.

Homeowners Choice, a leading provider of homeowners’ insurance, today announced that it will transfer the listing of its common stock from the NASDAQ Global Select Market to the New York Stock Exchange. The company expects its shares to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 25, 2012, under the new ticker symbol “HCI.” Until the transfer is complete, the company’s common shares will continue to trade under the ticker symbol “HCII” on the NASDAQ Global Select Market.

Better-than-expected second-quarter earnings, growth in revenues and strong credit quality are the primary rank drivers for this stock.

Homeowners Choice reported its second-quarter results on August 1 with earnings per share of 74 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents by 23.3% and year-ago earnings of 30 cents by 146.7%. Strong results for the quarter were primarily aided by substantially higher net premiums earned. However, slightly lower net investment income and higher expenses were the downsides.

Net premiums earned increased 112.8% to $36.3 million from $17.0 million in the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2012 increased 8.8% to $2.46 per share based on two out of three upward estimate revisions over the last 30 days. The current estimate implies year-over-year growth of 101.4%.

For 2013, two out of three estimates was revised higher over the same time frame, lifting the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 23.1% to $2.45 per share.

Homeowners Choice has an equity summary score of 9.7 out of 10 for a VERY Bullish outlook.

Impact of Share Buyback on Annaly Capital

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of its outstanding common shares over a 12 month period.  Annaly currently has 975 million shares outstanding with a market cap of $15.59 billion.  The buyback is 9.62% of the current market cap.

Based on FY 2013 earnings projections, the buyback will have an EPS accretion of 10.64%.  By adding the accretion with the current dividend yield of 12.5% the total return will be 23% without changing the PE ratio.  It will be hard to find a better high yield investment with this type of potential.

Zacks Investment has Annaly rated as neutral or hold with a 12-month price target of 18.30.  The target price is 15.6% higher than the current market price.

The current low interest rate environment has reduced potential investment returns, only partially offset by low short-term funding costs.  Prepayment rates on residential mortgages have also recently increased as agencies complete programs to repurchase delinquent mortgages and stabilize housing markets.  As a result, we expect net interest margins to narrow moderately over the next 12 months. Longer term, we think Annaly’s conservative financial posture places it in a strong position to expand its portfolio of agency mortgage backed securities once investment markets become more attractive. We think Annaly can augment investment income with higher fees from an expanding portfolio of assets under management for third parties.

Q3 earnings are expected to be announced after market hours on October 29, 2012.  Investors should hold up new purchases until the Q3 results.

Here is a link to the best mortgage REITs for the next quarter.

Mortgage REITs are Still an Attractive High Yield Dividend Play

Mortgage REITs have garnered increased attention among investors in recent weeks after the Federal Reserve announced stimulus measures focused on the purchases of mortgage backed securities.  The Market Vectors Mortgage REIT Income ETF (MORT), which seeks to replicate the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Global Mortgage REITs Index, has gained over 20 percent year-to-date.

Mortgage REITs (mREITs) continue to be that right place for high yield investors.  The mortgage REITs are currently at a 4% premium to estimated third quarter book value and yielding 12.0%.  One of the biggest risks to mREITs is increasing mortgage prepayments as the reinvestment risk is higher when interest rate spreads decline.  The latest data suggests that mortgage prepayment rates showed a slowdown in the level of activity in September.

However, we expect increases in speeds in upcoming months given the rally in rates.  We continue to favor the mortgage REITs with prepay protected portfolios as they will have better third quarter book value performance from increased pay-ups on specified pools and more stable cash flows from lower reinvestment needs.  Prepayment speeds on 30-year conventional speeds decreased 11% in September from the prior month. Trends were generally consistent between the 30-year and 15-year sectors.

The best mortgage REIT plays are IVR, MTGE, and ATMG in the next quarter.

American Capital Mortgage Investment Corp. (MTGE) reported net income for the three months ended June 30, 2012 of $32.2 million, or $1.15 per share, and net book value of $22.08 per share.  The Company has a current price to estimated 3Qbook value of 106% indicating it is trading at a 6% premium.  However, American Capital has a dividend yield of 14.72% that has been increased 165% in the last year.

Coverage on American Capital Mortgage was initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities. The stock price target is $26.50.

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) reported net income of $79.8 million, or $0.68 per share (basic and diluted), for the quarter ended June 30, 2012 and its book value per share was $18.40.   The Company has a current price to estimated 3Qbook value of 105% indicating it is trading at a 5% premium.  Invesco Mortgage has a dividend yield of 12.54%.

Morgan Stanley recently upgraded Invesco Mortgage from EQUAL-WEIGHT to OVERWEIGHT.  The stock price target is $22.00.

Apollo Residential Mortgage, Inc. (AMTG) reported Net income was $26.4 million or $1.24 per share, for the three months ended June 30, 2012 and its book value per share was $19.65.   The Company has a current price to estimated 3Qbook value of 104% indicating it is trading at a 4% premium.  Apollo Residential has a dividend yield of 16.02%.

Be Prepared for Earnings Season with these Stocks

The overall tone at the start of the earnings season is looking downbeat.  The S&P 500 index is on pace for its fourth day of declines over concern the global economic slowdown was hurting profits and causing companies to lower their outlooks.  The index is testing the technical support level of 1,440.  If the overall earnings picture does disappoint, the market can break the support level and fall into correction territory.

But as important as beating consensus earnings expectations for the third quarter are, it is even more important to provide reassuring enough guidance for the fourth quarter and beyond.  The overall earnings scorecard for the third quarter is that we have 28 companies from the S&P 500 already report results as of this morning (October 10), with total earnings down 4.9% from the same period last year and less than half of the companies beating earnings expectations.

It is still early in the earnings season, but if the quality of guidance remains weak, then estimates for the fourth quarter will have to come down from current expectations.  Prudent investors will want to protect against this potential decline by seeking safety in high quality dividend stocks.  Here are some stocks to consider if the earnings season disappoints and the markets pullback from current levels.

Food producer Conagra Foods (CAG) is showing price strength in the past few weeks on the heels of several analyst upgrades.   Conagra beat Q1 earnings and raised 2013 earnings outlook.  In addition, Conagra raised its dividend 4% and now has a dividend yield of 3.60%.  The Company has a low beta of 0.46 meaning it has low price volatility compared to the overall market.  Conagra has an equity summary score of 9.6 out of 10 for a VERY Bullish outlook.

Ketchup maker H.J. Heinz Co. (HNZ) has a flat stock price which is up only 5% year to date but it is a stable stock with a low beta of 0.50.  Heinz is continuing to exhibit strong sales in emerging markets, where organic sales rose 19.3% last quarter.  Heinz is increasing marketing efforts in the U.S. as shoppers remain frugal with their grocery budgets.  The Company has a current dividend yield of 3.63% that was increased 7.3% in the past year.  Heinz has an equity summary score of 9.1 out of 10 for a VERY Bullish outlook.

Medical device maker Medtronic (MDT) has a 1-year total return of 32%. However, it is still considered a low volatility stock with a beta of 0.67.  Medtronic just agreed to buy China Kanghui Holdings (KH) for $816 million in cash, in a growth move to enter China’s medical device market to accelerate its overall globalization strategy.  The Company has a current dividend yield of 2.41% that was increased 7.2% in the past year.  Medtronic has an equity summary score of 9.1 out of 10 for a VERY Bullish outlook.

Everyone’s favorite tobacco stock Altria Group (MO) is always a stable stock.  Altria has a low beta of 0.27.  Altria’s Board of Directors in August approved a 7.3% increase to their quarterly dividend.  Altria has a current dividend yield of 5.25%.  Altria has an equity summary score of 7.9 out of 10 for a Bullish outlook.

Fisher Communications offers a 27% Special Dividend

Fisher Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: FSCI) initiated a regular quarterly dividend and declared a special $10 cash dividend as the local-media company looks to boost its value to shareholders.

The company said it plans to launch a quarterly dividend of 15 cents, beginning in the fourth quarter. The payout will cost roughly $5.33 million a year.

Fisher intends to fund the special dividend, which will total about $89 million, with existing cash and investments.

Fisher reported earlier this month its second-quarter profit increased 18% as revenue rose 4.8%.

Based on the current stock price, the special dividend will be a 27% dividend yield.  Fisher has a fair value estimate of $45.

Get a Special Dividend of $10.50 (28% Yield)

Kaydon Corporation (KDN) announced that the New York Stock Exchange has established March 27, 2012, as the ex-dividend date for its $10.50 per common share special dividend recently declared by the Board of Directors on February 22, 2012. The dividend of $10.50 per common share is payable on March 26, 2012 to stockholders of record as of the  close of business on March 5, 2012.

Kaydon Corporation is a leading designer and manufacturer of custom engineered, performance-critical products, supplying a broad and diverse group of alternative energy, military, industrial, aerospace, medical and electronic equipment, and aftermarket customers.  KDN is trading at $37.50 with a normal dividend yield of 2.1%.  The Special Dividend of $10.50 is a 28% yield on the current trading price.

Pursuant to the rules of the New York Stock Exchange, for dividends of this size relative to a company’s stock price, the date on which that  company’s shares will begin to trade without the dividend, or ex-dividend, is the first business day following the payable date.  etween the record date and the ex-dividend date the shares trade with a due-bill representing the special dividend.

As a result, shareholders who sell their shares prior to the March 27, 2012, ex-dividend date will also be selling their right to receive the special dividend. Kaydon Corporation common stock will begin trading on an ex-dividend basis beginning March 27, 2012, in accordance with New York Stock Exchange rules.

 

5 Dividend Growers to Watch

Which is more important to an income investor – current dividend yield or future yield on cost?  The typical answer is – it depends.  My answer would be to have a portfolio of stocks that can provide both, current yield and growing dividends.  This is what I evaluate when I am looking at dividend stocks.  In addition, I use my valuation model to get an idea of what to expect in the next 10 years. Of course, the model only provides projections based on what is expected of the stock using its current growth rates.  Therefore, I update these estimates as the market evolves to determine what has changed that will affect my outlook of the stock.  This will tell me when to add or exit the position.  Here are 5 stocks I have evaluated based on the current market conditions.

Raytheon Company (RTN) designs, develops, manufactures, integrates, and supports technological products, services, and solutions for governmental and commercial customers in the United States and internationally.  RTN is currently trading at $50.36, 10% below its fair value.  RTN has an equity summary score of 9.4 of 10 indicating analysts are very bullish on this stock.  RTN has a current dividend yield of 3.4% with a dividend growth rate of 12%.  Looking
forward 10 years, RTN will have a yield on cost of 10.9%.

RTN had Q4 EPS of $1.58, vs. $1.37, which is above the $1.35 estimate, on higher operating margins than we expected.  Orders for 2011 rose 9% and book-to-bill was 1.1X.  Nevertheless, we see risk in potential defense budget “sequestration” and other budget cuts.  RTN will have a higher tax rate in 2012 and
will have gains from share repurchases through 2013. RTN has a target price of $55, on our view of RTN’s ability to maintain profitability despite a difficult
defense environment.  RTN Shares should be HOLD until more certainty regarding the defense cuts outlook.

Cardinal Health, Inc. (CAH) operates as a healthcare services company that provides pharmaceutical and medical products and services. The company operates in two segments, Pharmaceutical and Medical.  CAH is currently trading at $41.54, which is significantly below its fair value.  CAH has an equity summary score of 9.3 of 10 indicating analysts are very bullish on this stock.  CAH has a current dividend yield of 2.1% with a dividend growth rate of 12%.  Looking forward 10 years, CAH will have a yield on cost of 6.4% with a payout ratio of 27%.

CAH had Q2 FY 2012 non-GAAP EPS that climbed 11% to $0.81, beating the estimate by $0.02. The key Q2 driver was a 30% profit gain from drug distribution, reflecting internal growth, acquisitions and better margins.  However, medical products profits fell 18%, impacted by residual commodity cost
pressures. Looking to second half FY 2012, CAH will see continued double-digit EPS growth, lifted by expansion in higher-margin generics and greater
contributions from acquisitions. Based on its EPs growth and cheap market valuation, CAH should be a BUY.

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, operation, and sustainment of advanced technology systems and products in the United States and internationally. LMT is currently trading at $88.29, which is 17% above its fair value.  LMT has an
equity summary score of 9.2 of 10 indicating analysts are very bullish on this stock.  LMT has a current dividend yield of 4.6% with a dividend growth rate of 12%.   Looking forward 10 years, LMT will have an impressive yield on cost of 14.1% if it reaches a payout ratio of 70%.

LMT had Q4 EPS of $2.14, vs. $2.28, above the $2.01 estimate. Sales fell 4% as operating margins rose 20 bps, to 8.9%, better than expected. We note F-35 low-rate production is being slowed by Pentagon, although LMT expects F-35 growth in 2012. Backlog rose 3%, year to year. We see mixed US govt. budget effects on LMT, with backlog up for Aeronautics and Electronics, but down for IS&GS and Space Systems. Based on defense cuts and overpriced stock, LMT should be a HOLD until the stocks pulls back to fair value.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) operates as an oil and gas exploration and production company primarily in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Oil and Gas; Chemical; and Midstream, Marketing, and Other.  OXY is currently trading at $104.67, which is significantly below its fair value.  OXY has an equity summary score of 9.1 of 10 indicating analysts are very bullish on this stock.  OXY has a current dividend yield of 2.1% with a dividend growth rate of 10%.  Looking forward 10 years, OXY will have a yield on cost of 5.4%.

OXY had Q4 EPS of $2.02, vs. $1.49, beating the estimate by $0.19 on revenue from strong oil realizations. OXY lifted production 4% in 2011 as U.S. offset shut-ins in Libya and from production sharing contracts. Growth resulted from a ramp in Permian and California. U.S. is a key growth factor, offsetting issues in Libya and Yemen. OXY will have production up 6% in 2012 and 8% in 2013, on California. These shares should be a long-term BUY based on outlook and valuation.

Alliance Holdings GP, L.P (AHGP) produces and markets coal primarily to utilities and industrial users in the United States. It produces a range of steam coal with varying sulfur and heat contents.  AHPG is currently trading at $49.83, which is right at its fair value.  AHGP has an equity summary score of 9.0 of 10
indicating analysts are very bullish on this stock.  AHGP has a current dividend yield of 5.1% with a dividend growth rate of 10%.  Looking forward 10 years, AHGP will have a yield on cost of 13.3%.

Reflecting record financial results for the year ended December 31, 2011, AHGP reported record net income for 2011 of $214.1 million, or $3.58 per basic and diluted limited partner unit, an increase of 22.8% compared to net income for the year ended December 31, 2010 of $174.3 million, or $2.91 per basic and diluted limited partner unit.  AHPG announced a dividend increase of 4.5% over the third quarter 2011 distribution of $0.61 per unit (an annualized rate
of $2.44 per unit).  AHGP enjoyed continued success in the 2011 as its distribution increased 20.9% over the prior year quarter.  We currently expect AHGP quarterly unitholder distributions in 2012 to grow at a pace similar to 2011.  AHGP is a BUY for income investors based on its growing dividend.

Natural Gas Energy Stocks with High Dividend Yields

As the price of a barrel of oil continues to trade around $100 per barrel, the price of natural gas has plummeted like a rock.  Natural gas is currently trading
at $2.33 million BTUs (British Thermal Units).  Usually, the price of gas to oil is 6:1 but with natural gas trading at $2.33 and oil around $100 the ratio is
43:1.  Natural gas hasn’t been this cheap since 2002.  The best trade on natural gas today is to buy cheap assets and wait until their value increases. The natural gas companies have dropped in price along with the market price of natural gas.  However, you will be confronted with an uncertain amount of time for natural gas market prices to increase to normal price levels.   You will want to find natural gas stocks that pay you dividends while waiting on the natural gas price rebound.  These include the high yield natural gas storage stcoks and royalty trusts like discussed below.

PAA Natural Gas Storage (PNG) is engaged in acquiring, developing, operating and commercializing management of natural gas storage facilities to a mix of customers, including local gas distribution companies, electric utilities, pipelines, direct industrial users, electric power generators, marketers, producers, liquefied natural gas importers and affiliates of such entities.  As of Dec 31, 2010, it owned and operated tow natural gas storage facilities in Louisiana and Michigan that have an aggregate working gas storage capacity of 50.00 billion cubic feet and an aggregate peak injection and withdrawal capacity of 1.70 billion cubic feet per day and 3.20 billion cubic feet per day, respectively.  On January 10, 2012,  PNG announced its quarterly cash distribution of $0.3575 per unit  ($1.43 per unit on an annualized basis) on all of its outstanding common and Series A subordinated units.  The distribution will be payable on February 14, 2012, to holders of record of such units at the close of business on February 3, 2012.  This distribution is equal to the quarterly distribution paid in November 2011, and represents an increase of approximately 3.6% over the quarterly distribution of $0.345 per unit ($1.38 per unit on an annualized basis) paid in February 2011.  PNG has an annualized dividend yield of 7.73%.

Niska Gas Storage Partners (NSK) owns and operates natural gas storage assets.  It stores natural gas for a range of customers, such as financial institutions, marketers, pipelines, power generators, utilities and producers of natural gas.  NKA provides storage services under long-term firm contracts, whereby customers pay monthly reservation fees in exchange for the right to inject, store and withdraw volumes of natural gas on days and for periods selected by them. NKA also provides services under short-term firm contracts, whereby customer pays a fixed fee to inject certain quantity of natural gas on a specified date or dates and to store that gas in its storage facilities until withdrawal.  NKA has a dividend yield of 14%.

Pengrowth Energy is a Canadian resource company that is engaged in the production, development, exploration and acquisition of oil and natural gas assets. As of Dec 31, 2010, total gross proved reserves for light and medium oil consisted of 80,746 thousands of barrels (“Mbbl”), heavy oil consisted of 15,138 Mbbl, natural gas liquids consisted of 20,726 Mbbl, natural gas consisted of 531,374 millions of cubic feet (“MMcf”) and coal bed methane consisted of 48,262 MMcf.  At the close of trading January 23, PGH stock was at $10.61 per share on daily volume of 1,005,854 shares.  PGH’s 52-week price range stood at $7.99 to $14.60, which had its $10.61 closing quote off its 52-week high by about 27.3%.  PGH announced its February 15, 2012 cash dividend will be C$0.07 per common share.  This is an annual dividend yield of 7.83% paid on a monthly basis.

 

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